Hard Forks and the Zero Sum Game
I've seen a lot of people defending hard forks saying they are legit because they are a zero sum game. Are they?
Imagine the following scenario:
I have 100 Bitcoins and a Somecoin hard fork is created. I now have 100 Somecoins worth almost nothing and 100 Bitcoins worth $20k. Then an outsider buys 100 Somecoins which increases its price leaving the price of a bitcoin unchanged. Now, if I sell my 100 Somecoins, I'll have made close to what this outsider invested and the price of this coin will drop down to what it was before and the price of bitcoin will remain unchanged.
So it seems to me that new people who join the hard fork are always at risk of being dumped by people who were already in the fork. I understand that if people sell bitcoins to buy somecoins, then the price of bitcoin will drop and the price of somecoin will increase, making it look like a zero sum game. But if an outsider buys somecoins directly, the price of somecoins will increase on its own, making people who had bitcoins before the hard fork have increased value in both, hence the idea of creating money out of thin air.
What is the argument to defend that hard forks are a zero sum game? I just can't seem to see it that way.
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